marți, 28 iunie 2011

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  • unitednations
    03-25 03:13 PM
    Did you not think of the would be immigrants of Indian origin not part of this "system" when you came to this conclusion? I am one such. Think how disadvantaged my position is.

    I hate to say it but that is what collateral damage is...

    I don't discus it much but some people would even want to splinter Eb further. Some people have posted that they want andhra pradesh to be separated. There doesn't seem to be much opposition to h1b for non IT positions. We're all in this together. If one group tries to splinter then it will cause an equal or greater response from people who think they will be harmed.

    Right now: ROW doesn't say much because in eb2 the dates are current and in eb3 it is manageable. However; if they get harmed due to the lifting of the country quota then there might be further infighting or it gets stopped in its tracks before it can actually go through.

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  • NKR
    04-14 03:37 PM
    Where do you get the idea that the child will loose the life in apartments and then get back after buying a house?:confused:

    Unfortunately time will never move in reverse and will move in just one direction. A childhood gone is gone. It will never come back. We all want good things for our kids. My perception of good thing is different from yours. If my kid says that he wants to live in an apartment I will move to an apartment, that�s a given.

    It would be nice if we can buy the house on the day one when we join the job. Or even nicer if our parents got us a house in US before we came here:D.

    Unfortunately there are circumstances that prevent us buying a house. The biggest one is this bubble and the madness of multiple bidding that insanely pushed the real estate prices, all the while the realtors and mortgage brokers where making 300K or 500K yearly income selling shoe boxes for half a million and generating slogans like "you will be priced out forever", "they are not manufacturing any more land", "housing is always a good investment", "renting is throwing away money".

    Agreed. The decision to buy rests on an individual and to his/her situation, no one wants to buy when things are not conducive.

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  • lfwf
    08-05 07:12 PM
    Good points below.

    Now, FreshEb2, through the handle itself, comes across as a stoker not a sensible person.

    EB2 and EB3 are two very different EMPLOYMENT BASED legal immigration categories. Filing in one category DOES NOT PRECLUDE one from filing in another category, for another *future* job, as long the *future* jobs themselves meet the criteria to qualify for that EB category.

    Coming to tihnk of, the coward parading as RollingFlood has not posted his/her company, EB job posting, and other pieces of information that I had challenged him/her to post. Seriously you coward, come out and post it... this community can help validate whether there really is no US worker to take that position. Now, dont chicken out and fillibuster this with more weak arguments. Post your glorified EB2 job posting for all of us to see ... and let us see if you have illegally gotten ahead in the line ahead of all those hardworking US citizens that have been laid off in the last 2 quarters across all major sectors. C'mon, do it ... do it...

    Also, somewhere you had said that you were an MBA from a top US university. Welcome to the club. Though, I am sad to share the boat with you! Now, look back at the essay you wrote to get into B-School. Are you doing exactly what you claimed you would do after the MBA? Shall we take that up and go back to the school to have them rescind your diploma because you misused the system? One can say you got into an MBA on a fundamentally false premise. So, give back that diploma.

    Also, did you come into the country on a F1 visa? What did you tell the visa officer? That you were going back to your home country, right? Didnt you need to show proof of ties to your home country. Can we take you to court stating that you committed a felony by lying to a Government official regarding matters of homeland security? Seriously. Why not?

    No amount trying to sub-optimize logic to fit your specific narrow needs will make your holier-than-thou arguments even remotely credible, let alone valid in a court of law. What is clear from this 10 page thread, is that we have a few folks like FreshEB2, RollingFlood etc that present themselves as 'high skilled' workers in the US immigration system but clearly lack the basic level of logic to have a factual conversation. Their ladders of inferences are stark and substantive.

    By sub-optimally picking 'argument points' based the 'weakest links' that you invent and trying to super-size that to reflect a larger interest is very weak attempt to preserve your position.


    You had also mentioned that you would be filing a 'public interest litigation'. That is a very Indian concept. PIL type cases work differently in the US. You dont just run to your local court and claim 'PIL' because you felt wronged. Any court in the US would deem your case as narrowly defined to challenge legislation and throw you out because judiciary cannot legislate.

    Obviously, you grossly underestimated the intellect of this group and thought your big words and b-board bravado would scare people. :D

    OP is long gone. Your post is full of big brave words and no substance. If you want to have a discussion and demonstrate your "intellect", please make some rational arguments and back them up. There is no lawsuit discussion here, just a debate on the merits of BS+5 PD porting

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  • Macaca
    01-30 06:48 PM
    The article Round 2: H-1B Battle: American engineers vs. President Bush (! has the following paras.

    Lou Dobbs exposed a complete lack of enforcement of H-1B caps by the federal government for the last 2 years. According to the USCIS report, over 75,000 additional H-1B visas were issued above the cap during 2004 and 2005. He openly challenged Congressmen, Senators and the President to enforce our laws. He posed the questions:

    1) Why was the report released on November 20th, 2006, immediately after the last election?

    2) Why was his report not made available to the public?

    3) Why aren�t guest worker Visa caps being enforced?

    4) Why does neither Congress nor the executive branch fulfill their constitutional duties?

    These good questions lead to the bigger question of who is responsible for enforcing these laws?


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  • zshakyaz
    03-25 11:43 PM
    ok..People its been more than 6 months since some adventure in my case :D morning I got a call from a lady voice saying she is from Immigration services..

    The call ended by the time I realized my is the short story

    Immig: We are verifying your details and need from information to process
    Me: sure.

    Immig: WHo do you work for
    Me: Blah Blah employer

    Immig : Where do you work and who is your client
    Me: Blah Blah

    Immig: When did you first came to US. Where is Port of entry..
    Me: blah blah

    Immig: Do you have all of your IT contracts details.
    Me: COntracts? Since they are property of my employer..I dont have.

    Immig: We need to see your contracts with the clients..
    Me: hmm...I can try but I dont know if I can get them

    Immig: Well...It will help process your application..How fast we can process depends on how fast you can get those..
    Me: OK..I will try..

    Immig: Give me your email..I will drop in email with all can reply back with copy of contracts
    Me: Ok..blah..blah email

    Immig: I need All phone numbers and all supervisors of all clients you worked with in US
    Me: I gave all of the details..told her that I cannot vouch for the validity of phone numbers or emails, as I dont know if they work for the same company

    Immig: Ok..done..I will send email..
    Me: thank you

    I this power play, I forgot to tell her that I already went through interview in aug08 and officer found everything correct. :confused:
    Nevertheles..does anyone know what this is all about?
    Why would they need this kind of information..I am not worried as such since I was never on bench or anything and have all LCAs all blah blah details.

    Just curious :confused::confused:

    (:this is all true regarding Immigration Services calling then)
    Hey guys I also got a call from Immigration Services today on March 25 2009 .
    this is what happened
    First he started confiming he was talking to the right person
    And told My g-28 hasn't been properly signed and completed.
    Caller didn't ask me for my personal i nformation
    he confirmed my name, dob ,my last entry . address, wifes name address dob
    my parents name , my in laws name. He even told g28 it was signed by my HR manager.
    He had all the information, he didn't ask for any personal information.
    He asked if there was any other names used.
    He joked about me not smiling on the picture, he confirmed when the finger prints were completed
    After about 10 minutes of conversation he congratualed me on the approval and my wifes approval said the card should be mailed from kentucky with a week and even mentioned that USCIS online system isn't working.

    I am taking infopass tommorrow and confirming and if true I am going have it stamped

    I hope this is all true.

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  • pappu
    08-11 03:10 PM
    toung is made of BS
    on a lighter note--
    He has BS (you know what that is) Degree in economics from harvard.

    Looking at his career he is quite a star.

    Louis Earl[1] Dobbs (born September 24, 1945) is the anchor and managing editor of CNN's hour-long weeknight program Lou Dobbs Tonight, an editorial columnist, and host of a syndicated radio show.

    Dobbs was born in Childress, Texas, raised in Rupert, Idaho, and resides in Sussex County, New Jersey.[1] He attended Minico High School in Rupert, serving as student body president in 1963. He later earned a degree in economics from Harvard University. He is married with children.


    Dobbs joined CNN when it launched in 1980, serving as its chief economics correspondent and as host of the business news program CBS News Sunday Morning on CBS. Dobbs also served as a corporate executive for CNN, as its executive vice president and as a member of CNN News Chief Iran Correspondent’s executive committee. He also founded CNN News (CNN financial news), serving as its president and anchoring the program, Business Unusual, which examined business creativity and leadership. In 1999, Dobbs started, a Web-based multimedia company dedicated to space education and entertainment.

    Dobbs left CNN in 2000, reportedly due to heated clashes with its president, Rick Kaplan, one of which actually occurred on-air when Kaplan suggested to cut from CNN News to a live address by Bill Clinton at Columbine, which Dobbs believed was a staged event and not newsworthy. [2] Dobbs returned the following year at the behest of his friend and CNN founder Ted Turner, becoming host and managing editor of the new and initially more general news program Lou Dobbs Reporting, which later became CNN News Sunday Morning. Dobbs also hosts a nationally syndicated radio show, The Lou Dobbs Financial Report, and he is a regular columnist in Money magazine, U.S. News & World Report and the New York Daily News.

    Political positions

    In the 2000s, Dobbs has used CNN programs and columns to express strong personal views on several subjects. He has become particularly noted for two positions. Concerning international trade, he leans toward protectionism and is particularly wary of outsourcing and offshoring in light of the increasing US trade deficit, particularly with China. He also is opposed to a North American union.

    Dobbs is strongly opposed to illegal immigration, immigration amnesty, abuses of the H-1B visa program[3] and guest worker programs.[4] He supports stringent enforcement at U.S. borders, whether by federal or state action, or by private groups like the controversial Minuteman Project. Dobbs often has stated the United States is becoming balkanized and immigrants and/or illegal aliens are refusing to assimilate. He has been critical of their demonstrations of ethnic or national pride, stating, "I don't think that we should have any flag flying in this country except the flag of the United States", and "I don't think there should be a St. Patrick's Day. I don't care who you are. I think we ought to be celebrating what is common about this country, what we enjoy as similarities as people." He has been accused of inciting xenophobia by some such as Libertarian journalist James K. Glassman of the American Enterprise Institute[5].

    Lou Dobbs Tonight frequently features related issues under the ongoing billboards "Exporting America" and "Broken Borders". The newscast often couples references to illegal aliens with the word "invasion". Dobbs dismisses the allegedly excessive or misguided concern for language as "political correctness" in the segment billboarded "P.C. Nation".

    Dobbs' stance on trade has earned plaudits from some trade union activists, on the traditional political left, while his stance on immigration tends to appeal to the right. Dobbs is a self-described "lifelong Republican" [6] who has become disenchanted with the policies of George W. Bush's administration.

    In his "Broken Borders" segments Dobbs focuses primarily on the southern border with Mexico and the drugs and illegal aliens that cross it. Critics claim this is unfair because the 5000-mile border between Canada and the United States is longer and also permeable. On the other hand, proponents note the vast majority of illegal aliens and drugs pass into the United States via the Mexican border and that he has in fact had some segments dealing with the lack of security along the US-Canada border. As of the end of May 2006; some 829,109 illegal immigrants had been apprehended crossing from Mexico into the U.S.A. this year. Illegal Immigrants apprehended crossing from Canada to the U.S.A. are a tiny fraction of that amount -- 4,066. [7][8] Dobbs apparently also has lauded the Canadian government for cooperation in securing the border with their American counterparts.

    In June 2006, as the U.S. Senate debates the Federal Marriage Amendment, Dobbs was highly critical of the action. He asserted that so-called traditional marriage was threatened more by financial crises perpetuated by Bush administration economic policy than by gay marriage. [9]

    In July 2006, Dobbs criticized U.S. foreign policy as being disproportionately supportive of Israel, pointing out the U.S.'s rapid recognition of Israel in 1948, foreign aid to Israel, and other policy choices in the past and present. [10]


    Dobbs has won numerous major awards for his television journalism, most notably a Lifetime Achievement Emmy Award, and a Cable Ace award. He received the George Foster Peabody Award for his coverage of the 1987 stock market crash. He also has received the Luminary Award of the Business Journalism Review in 1990, the Horatio Alger Association Award for Distinguished Americans in 1999 and the National Space Club Media Award in 2000. The Wall Street Journal has named Dobbs "TV's Premier Business News Anchorman". Dobbs even was named "Father of the Year" by the National Father's Day Committee in 1993.


    Dobbs serves or has served on the boards of the Society of Professional Journalists Foundation, the Horatio Alger Association, the National Space Foundation and the Imaginova Corporation, formerly known as, in which he owns a minority stake, as he does in Integrity Bank. He is a member of the Planetary Society, the Overseas Press Club and the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.


    * Exporting America : Why Corporate Greed Is Shipping American Jobs Overseas (Warner Business Books, 2004) ISBN 0446577448
    * Space: The Next Business Frontier by Dobbs and HP Newquist (Atria, 2001) ISBN 0743423895


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  • sc3
    07-13 04:10 AM
    EB3-I..please print the attached word doc and sign and mail it to Department of state..this week

    Moderator could you makes this Sticky please

    Thanks!. I was in the process of writing to the Ombudsman about the allotment system change, and the reasons behind it. If I dont hear back, I intend to write to my congresswoman / senator about it.

    So while I was thinking what to write, your draft is very helpful in making my final letter. I hope everyone starts writing mails to the ombudsman about the problem.

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  • GC08
    02-02 10:14 PM
    Whether that stupid guy knows or not is not important. The most important thing is the American people. I guarantee that most Americans do not know how H1Bs contribute to the American society. If they are misinformed, the government and Congress can only further mistreat people like you and me. The real danger of those lies about H1Bs is that it will stir up a sentiment of anti legal immigrants

    Remember, the sentiment of the American society plays a vital role in American policies as all the politicians want votes!

    By the way, pro-immigration does not necessarily mean pro-legal immigration. Sometimes, the so called pro-immigration policies can only jeopardize those who are here legally, mainly those employment-based immigrant, most of whom take the F1-H1-GC route ... just like you and me. So be careful when we support any bills. We need to understand what exactly our legal immigrants get from the bill before we support it. :)


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  • wandmaker
    09-26 08:36 AM
    Exactly, I was thinking on the same lines. Entire EB community need to unite more than ever, if at all something need to happen in FY 2009.

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  • desi3933
    07-09 01:56 PM
    Related question - if your I94 is expiring say 8/11/2007 and ur H1 is still valid until 11/11/2009; do you have to renew the I94..while in the US (given that you are not travelling outside US)

    The H1B does have a I94 at the bottom corner with 11/11/2009 as Exp Date.

    You already have I-94 valid until 11/11/2209.

    Just to verify, are the numbers same on both I-94s (8/11/2007, 11/11/2009)? If so, you are ok. Staple the new I-94 in the passport along with the old one.

    Not a legal advice.


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  • sanju
    05-17 10:21 AM
    Behave like a high skilled person. Do not use bad words just because someone is against your opinion. Again if you use everything is appilcable to you. That means you are losing track and you do not have valid argument. You do not have sense that this thread is not for discussion for gc. This thread is about the H1b issue and Durbin bill. This my last reply for you. I will ignore you hereafter if you behave like this. I wasted my time for replying you. So you also do not reply my arguments.

    Whow! Whow! Whow! Why didn’t I see this coming? So now it is ok to support bills that will screw-up lives of millions of hard working people and their families, who have done thing wrong. But it is not ok to reply people like yourself. Ohh! I did not realize that. I am so so so so sorry to hurt you…. Idiot

    You are the winner of today’s trophy to be the worst person in the world.

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  • GCapplicant
    07-13 11:47 AM
    Here is my 2 cents worth...

    What EB3 I wants to accomplish here is to emphasize that we are retrogressed beyond logic, limits and reason.

    What we could probably do is, write a letter describing our plight and also mention in the letter, the IV effort that is underway. By doing this, we can emphasize our situation and at the same time substantiate IV's effort.

    We can come up with agreeable facts that should go in the letter that explains EB3 I plight. IV core can help with this and also proof read and approve final version of the doc. We should stress on date being stuck in 2001. And AC21 not giving a whole lot flexibility to change jobs even with EAD. Like a programmer with 7 years of experience would be eligible to become a PM (if the person has acquired right skills/knowledge/experience) but I am not sure if AC21 allows a person to do that.

    Besides, EAD is not GC. If not, let them announce EAD as temp GC - meaning issuing EAD means GC is approved but the card is not issued owing to number availability - Makes sense? In other words, once EAD is issued the person's GC should not be disapproved. The clock for citizenship should start with I140 approval. That way the applicant will have the peace of mind! And then let DOS/USCIS issue GC at their own pace!!

    I agree with that...spillover should have a releif to highly retrogressed also.Common 2001 EB3 is still hanging when will we get our solution.EAD is not a GC.This not relief.I understand unity is required here ,but how aboutEB3
    .Even we need required justice.
    Atleast we can address the problem.


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  • satishku_2000
    05-16 06:39 PM
    Nowadays LCA becomes just a documentation and it does not prevent displacement or any abuse. It may be true that DOL may not have authority and resource to prevent abuse.

    You did not answer my question about why some one with permanent labor certificate has to go thru the process of advertisement process for H1B renewal?

    In my case DOL labor took almost 3 years to certify my labor certificate which states that I am not displacing any american worker. I think 3 years is a good time to find whether I am displacing american worker or not.

    This law simply goes too far in the name of preventing abuse. I just dont get why someone working for same company and whose GC petition is pending(GC labor approved) has to prove every year that he is not displacing an american worker.

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  • raysaikat
    06-24 12:04 PM
    If you can rent the same house for 50% of your monthly mortgage and on top of it never have to worry about declining home prices why would you be more happy owning it?

    You should compare only the interest part of your mortgage payment when comparing with rent.


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  • jung.lee
    04-09 12:51 PM
    Being an energy saving geek, I also recommend buying something with a large south facing roof (for lots of solar panels).

    Mark, I looked at the pics of the roof of your house. Nice work. Being a little bit of an energy saving geek myself, and this being Earth Day month and all, do you mind sharing some details on the solar panel roofing project?

    What brand of panels did you purchase and where?
    What is the price per square foot raw material, and with installation? Did you use a specialized installer, or a regular roofing contractor?
    What is the total area (ft-squared or m-squared) of the panels?
    What is the energy generated by the panels (I am guessing something in kWH/m-squared)?

    Last but not the least, how the heck did you get snow to stay away from the panels, when it is clearly visible on other roofing tiles at the edges of the roof:)? Is this a property of the panels' surface (smoothness of surface - like glass)?

    Also, hate to dump out here - how about some details the geo-thermal system? (I admit that I know nothing about them, expect for the basic underground heat exchange concept. I did not know that a compact residential system was available).

    Thanks for sharing!

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  • pappu
    04-07 05:35 AM

    There is going to be no difference whether you

    1. Renew your H1 at the same company by filing an extension,
    2. Transfer your H1 to another company by filing a transfer or
    3. File a brand-new cap-subject H1 for someone who has never been on H1.


    For all 3, you have to file the same form I-129 and you get the same 2 forms in return from USCIS : I-797 (and I-94 too unless its an H1 for someone outside USA).

    The first 2 ways are cap exempt, and the last one (brand new) H1 is cap subject.

    But the process is the same. Paperwork is the same. You have to file LCA that shows the address/location of work, nature of work, title, salary etc. So even if you are working at same company, when you file for extension, you have to file a new LCA, that has all information and all that information will DISQUALIFY you if the new law passed and those rules of "consulting is illegal, outplacement at client site is illegal" apply.

    So take this seriously and do not underestimate this.

    And if you work perm-fulltime it will indirectly affect you. Projects are not done in isolation. Most projects have a mix of full-time employees and consultants who are sourced from vendors and H1B recruitors. Projects falter and fail when abruptly some consultants go back to their home countries because their H1s couldnt get extended. And that affects everyone. Job security depends on success of IT or other projects and if you are a part of failed project that was lost half way due to lack of skilled employees, then your job security also diminishes. If you are laid off, then the H1 transfer to a new company would be subject to the new rules under this law.

    Infact, this affects everyone.

    Students looking for new H1B
    Students on OPT
    H1Bs getting extensions
    H4s transferring to H1Bs

    and all H1Bs indirectly and directly

    Because now ALL employers will be hesitant to hire an H1B in ANY field due to such tough laws and lot of paperwork and lot of restrictions.


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  • DSJ
    05-16 08:26 AM
    Cool down.....

    I am not saying Infy and others are doing it right. If US asking more explanation that is fine with me, they should have used their brain before approving cases, not after. My point is consulting is not new to H1, even so called big company also do that via "permanent job".

    No this is not correct. If consultancy companies are not there we could find a permanent job. I do not think if H1b is banned for consulting H1b numbers will be reduced so much. H1b rotation will be reduced. But still TCS, Infosys will survive as they have lot of other options like L1 and B1.But US persons will make more money in consulting as there is no restriction for them. So impact is minimal for US companies and also H1B persons. impact will be severe for bodyshoppers. Also current H1b people will not be impacted as most of them will file I 485 as Skil bill be passed. But H1b abuse will be minimised.

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  • Refugee_New
    01-06 04:37 PM
    Slow down chief, not so fast.

    There are two ways to give coverage to an issue. One could be decided based on how many people are affected, second could be based on how may people care for that issue.

    Exactly, its about how many people care about the issue. This doesn't bother/don't care attitude is what making people angry. If you care death of 4 people and don't even bother to care the death of innocent school kids, then there is some problem with people who claim to be peaceful and peace loving nation. Its called double standard and hypocrisy.

    There needs to be correction in your post. When Pakistanis terrorist attacked mumbai, world community blamed Pakistan and not the entire muslim community.

    The problem is, the way muslim community responds to such world events, due to the sense of the guilt of their twisted belief system, they think that the world community is blaming every muslim, but that is actually not how the world community responded. Also, because of the urge to defend terror attacks by a terrorist, muslim community tends to justify terrorism and terrosit attacks. We saw many "educated" (HIGHLY SKILLED) members, who were apparently muslims, on this forum justifying terrorist attacks conducted by Pakistani terrorist who happen to be "muslims". Because, the overriding factor for a lot people following islamic faith is the religion of the person performing the bad deeds. And if that person happen to be a muslim, most of you guys tend to justify bad deeds including terrorist acts. This behavior results in world community responding to you in plain and simple terms that terrorist sympathizer is encouraging more terrorism and hence you perceive that expression as if the others are branding your entire community as terrorist, but again, this is not true either. Its the direct result of your sense of guilt and your urge to be terrorist sympathizer.

    Exactly, its about how many people care about the issue. If terrorists kill innocent civilians, first thing they'll say is "Islamic Terrorism". Don't tell me media around the world didn't use this term. Anything and everything blamed on religion and people following the religion. But When you kill muslims in hundreds, you won't say even a single word.

    Don't tell me members of this forum didn't blame muslims and their faith.

    Its your twisted belief that all muslims support terrorism or they defend terrorists. Its your twisted belief fed by biased media and biased religious and political leaders. I won't blame you.


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  • overseas
    12-21 03:45 PM
    It is one of the obvious facts that D-Company has financed and supported(ing) lot of terror activities in India. I'm not able to understand why the Indian government is not taking steps to crackdown their illegal empire in Bombay. If the funding is stopped there will be a huge decrease in terrorist activities.

    Yes, India may not be able to go to war and catch Dawood in Pakistan but they can definitely start taking action against all the business and people supporting Dawood in Mumbai. I was surprised why nobody has talked or taken any action about this. Up to the time government start taking some sincere actions Indian people have to suffer like this.

    11-29 08:43 PM
    Breaux to leave Patton Boggs to start own firm with son ( By Jim Snyder | The Hill, November 28, 2007

    Former Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) is leaving Patton Boggs to form his own firm with his lobbyist son, John Breaux Jr.

    Breaux has worked at the lobbying firm since retiring from the Senate in 2004. He said in a statement that he may continue to have an association with the firm, which was co-founded by fellow Louisianan Thomas Boggs.

    �Tom Boggs and the Patton Boggs firm have been a professional family for me since I retired from the Congress almost three years ago. It has been a rewarding experience in which I have learned a great deal from my colleagues, who are also my friends, but the challenge and opportunity to start a new business with my son is something that I cannot pass up,� Breaux said in a statement sent to Patton Boggs employees.

    Breaux and Patton Boggs were continuing to discuss how Breaux could continue to serve as counsel and provide strategic advice to the firm, according to the statement.

    Breaux�s announcement comes two days after the surprise retirement of Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), who is expected to begin a lobbying career. Some lobbyists have speculated that Lott and Breaux, both known as dealmakers in the Senate, might go into business together. Lott�s son Chester is also a lobbyist.

    Chester Lott told Bloomberg News that his father was considering lobbying with Sen. Breaux, and said the two have a �great relationship.�

    Thomas Boggs praised Breaux in a statement announcing the former senator�s departure: �We have all benefited immeasurably from our personal and professional association with John, we wish him well in his new venture, and look forward to continuing our personal friendship and professional collaboration for many years to come.�

    06-23 12:38 PM
    I don't believe the housing market slump will last more than 3 years!

    Echo boomers a lifeline for embattled U.S. housing | Reuters (

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The children of baby boomers will eventually resuscitate the pummeled U.S. housing market, Harvard University said on Monday, but in the meantime, limits on income and credit are sustaining the three-year bust.

    The highest unemployment in almost 26 years, record foreclosures and rigid lending threaten to overcome emerging home sales progress despite unprecedented efforts by the Obama administration, Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2009 report said.

    Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the study said. The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.

    "Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.

    The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond, supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops, the study said.

    The challenges are myriad, however, said Retsinas, a widely followed housing industry expert and former senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    "We have to find a way to stabilize housing finance in this country," he said.

    A healthy housing market is integral to a growing economy. In the current cycle, the housing crash has propelled the economy into its longest recession since the Great Depression. Jobs lost to the recession have derailed any housing recovery.

    "Seedlings of the housing recovery have to come through this thicket of job losses and foreclosures," Retsinas said. "The housing market has not seen these challenges for over 60 years."

    Mortgage rates have risen from all-time lows in the past two months despite massive government steps to keep them down.

    Foreclosures escalate as federal efforts to keep borrowers in their houses cannot keep pace with loan failures caused by job losses or punishing home price erosion.


    Home sales have started to pick up, thanks mostly to a first-time buyer tax credit this year of up to $8,000 and demand for foreclosure properties at bargain-basement prices.

    "While we do see some signs of stabilization, you can barely see those silver linings," Retsinas said.

    The lending pendulum swung vastly after the unsustainable five-year record home price surge early this decade. Lenders clamped down after lax conditions spawned record home sales and then fueled the torrent of foreclosures.

    Now, more than 85 percent of mortgage loans are created through the government and its agencies. Private lending companies either shut down or slammed on the credit brakes to prevent a repeat of major losses on flawed loans.

    What happens to mortgage availability currently rests in the hands of the federal government, the report said.

    But Retsinas noted: "Eventually you want a sustainable credit system, and that has to include private capital."

    The share of minority households, hurt most in the housing crisis, will rise to 35 percent in 2020 from 29 percent in 2005, the study projected. Those households typically have lower average incomes and wealth, and higher unemployment.

    In Cleveland, Boston and Washington, DC, price declines at the low end of the market through December were more than twice those at the high end in percentage terms, while in San Francisco they were nearly three times greater.

    Real median household incomes in all age groups under 55 have not risen since 2000, the Harvard study said. For the first time in at least 40 years, there is a chance that median household income will end the decade lower than where it started.

    The severity of the recession could hold incomes down for years.

    "The number of households that were severely cost-burdened -- people paying over 50 percent of their income for housing -- has grown dramatically," Retsinas said. The number spiked by 30 percent to 17.9 million between 2001 and 2007, the most recent data available.

    "The reality is that it's not just the cost of a house, but it's how much you make," he said. "Of course as people struggle with their jobs, as they lose that second job, they lose that overtime, their income drops make it more difficult to pay."

    Echo boomers will expand the number of needed housing units. But they also likely will enter the housing market with lower real incomes than people the same age did a decade ago, the study said.

    "While fundamentally we see what could be the foundation for long-term recovery, we still have to get through today's challenges," said Retsinas.

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